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Proceedings Paper

Land-use and land-cover sceneries in China: an application of Dinamica EGO model
Author(s): Wei Yi; Zhiqiang Gao; Zhihua Li; Maosi Chen
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Paper Abstract

Land is an indispensable natural resource for human, without which we cannot survive and develop. Land-use change, influenced by both natural environment and human activity, has a close relationship with food security, resource utilization, biodiversity and climate change. In order to understand the process and driving mechanism of land-use change, dynamic models were developed in these years, among which Dinamica EGO is a practical one and has been widely used in the world. In this paper, we aim to use Dinamica EGO to simulate the land-use of China in 2005 with data extracted from SPOT VGT NDVI. The real land-use map was compared with the simulation result so as to verify the feasibility of Dinamica EGO. Then we supposed three sceneries under which we could analyze the land-use change of China in 2020. Results indicated that: on the basis of no extreme natural disasters or exceptional policy fluctuation, the grassland area would reduce by 22.21 million hectares averagely. However forest would increase by 19.81 billion hectares on average. Water and unused land would probably remain stable as there was little change in three sceneries. Farmland areas showed a good agreement under these sceneries whereas the greatest difference in land-use area estimations lies in built-up with an uncertainty accounting for 1.67%.

Paper Details

Date Published: 24 October 2012
PDF: 7 pages
Proc. SPIE 8513, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability IX, 85130I (24 October 2012); doi: 10.1117/12.927782
Show Author Affiliations
Wei Yi, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (China)
Graduate Univ. of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (China)
Zhiqiang Gao, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (China)
Colorado State Univ. (United States)
Zhihua Li, East China Normal Univ. (China)
Maosi Chen, Colorado State Univ. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 8513:
Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability IX
Wei Gao; Thomas J. Jackson, Editor(s)

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