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Proceedings Paper

The national operational environment model (NOEM)
Author(s): John J. Salerno; Brian Romano; Warren Geiler
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Paper Abstract

The National Operational Environment Model (NOEM) is a strategic analysis/assessment tool that provides insight into the complex state space (as a system) that is today's modern operational environment. The NOEM supports baseline forecasts by generating plausible futures based on the current state. It supports what-if analysis by forecasting ramifications of potential "Blue" actions on the environment. The NOEM also supports sensitivity analysis by identifying possible pressure (leverage) points in support of the Commander that resolves forecasted instabilities, and by ranking sensitivities in a list for each leverage point and response. The NOEM can be used to assist Decision Makers, Analysts and Researchers with understanding the inter-workings of a region or nation state, the consequences of implementing specific policies, and the ability to plug in new operational environment theories/models as they mature. The NOEM is built upon an open-source, license-free set of capabilities, and aims to provide support for pluggable modules that make up a given model. The NOEM currently has an extensive number of modules (e.g. economic, security & social well-being pieces such as critical infrastructure) completed along with a number of tools to exercise them. The focus this year is on modeling the social and behavioral aspects of a populace within their environment, primarily the formation of various interest groups, their beliefs, their requirements, their grievances, their affinities, and the likelihood of a wide range of their actions, depending on their perceived level of security and happiness. As such, several research efforts are currently underway to model human behavior from a group perspective, in the pursuit of eventual integration and balance of populace needs/demands within their respective operational environment and the capacity to meet those demands. In this paper we will provide an overview of the NOEM, the need for and a description of its main components. We will also provide a detailed discussion of the model and sample use cases.

Paper Details

Date Published: 20 May 2011
PDF: 14 pages
Proc. SPIE 8060, Modeling and Simulation for Defense Systems and Applications VI, 80600J (20 May 2011); doi: 10.1117/12.888858
Show Author Affiliations
John J. Salerno, Air Force Research Lab. (United States)
Brian Romano, Air Force Research Lab. (United States)
Warren Geiler, Air Force Research Lab. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 8060:
Modeling and Simulation for Defense Systems and Applications VI
Eric J. Kelmelis, Editor(s)

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