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Proceedings Paper

A collaborative eye to the future
Author(s): Kshanti A. Greene; Terrance Goan; Eugene R Creswick
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Paper Abstract

We present a novel approach to predictive situation awareness that leverages human insight to enhance the forecasting abilities of Fusion levels 2 and 3. Existent technologies fail to support predictive and impact modeling under realistic conditions, particularly when there exist few historic exemplars on which to base inferences or when full awareness of the situation includes unobservable elements. We report on our ongoing efforts to develop FutureFusion, a collaborative system that builds predictive awareness and enables futurists to visualize paths to possible futures and formulate predictions on the ultimate outcome of scenarios of interest. FutureFusion's human interpretable knowledge representation is unique in its ability to capture qualitative descriptions of possible futures and quantify them to build computational models. Further, FutureFusion captures both popular consensus as well as high-risk outliers, thereby reducing the potential for surprise. Finally, by efficiently diversifying the modeling process across a heterogeneous and distributed community of experts, this approach avoids the common pitfalls of more traditional modeling approaches. FutureFusion helps to cast light on blindspots, mitigate human biases, and maintain a holistic, up-to-date predictive and impact awareness.

Paper Details

Date Published: 17 April 2008
PDF: 10 pages
Proc. SPIE 6968, Signal Processing, Sensor Fusion, and Target Recognition XVII, 696813 (17 April 2008); doi: 10.1117/12.779386
Show Author Affiliations
Kshanti A. Greene, Stottler-Henke Associates, Inc. (United States)
Terrance Goan, Stottler-Henke Associates, Inc. (United States)
Eugene R Creswick, Stottler-Henke Associates, Inc. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 6968:
Signal Processing, Sensor Fusion, and Target Recognition XVII
Ivan Kadar, Editor(s)

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