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Proceedings Paper

School absentee data modeling for possible detection of chem-bio attacks
Author(s): Holger M. Jaenisch; James W. Handley; Kristina L. Jaenisch; Jeffrey P. Faucheux
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Paper Abstract

A baseline mathematical Data Model for rapid detection of events affecting school attendance was established using measured absenteeism. We derived a process model in the form of a differential equation of baseline or nominal behavior of sufficient fidelity to enable predictive what-if excursions to be done. Also, we derived a change detector equation enabling aberrant absenteeism to be flagged on the first day of detection. Used together, both mathematical models provide a powerful tool set for analysis and examining what unusual absenteeism patterns might be like due to chem-bio attack. A convenient single page lookup table is provided to give predictive analysis capability without resorting to cumbersome calculations.

Paper Details

Date Published: 23 May 2005
PDF: 12 pages
Proc. SPIE 5845, Noise in Complex Systems and Stochastic Dynamics III, (23 May 2005); doi: 10.1117/12.608687
Show Author Affiliations
Holger M. Jaenisch, dtech Systems Inc. (United States)
James Cook Univ. (Australia)
James W. Handley, James Cook Univ. (United States)
Sparta, Inc. (United States)
Kristina L. Jaenisch, Huntsville Hospital (United States)
Jeffrey P. Faucheux, Sparta, Inc. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 5845:
Noise in Complex Systems and Stochastic Dynamics III
Laszlo B. Kish; Katja Lindenberg; Zoltan Gingl, Editor(s)

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