Proceedings PaperThe end of the semiconductor industry as we know it
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The goal of this paper is to discuss the technical and economic drivers of Moore’s Law, with special emphasis on their interdependence. These drivers can be classified as “push” (technology improvements push us down the Moore’s Law path) and “pull” (economic incentives create increasing chip production volumes which drive the technology learning curve). In fact, Moore’s Law can be considered as an instance of general learning curve theory, which places a special importance on the role of increasing chip volumes on the slope of Moore’s Law. After a general review of the history of Moore’s Law, its relevance today is described in terms of transistor shrinks rather than increasing functions per chip. The challenges required for the continuation of Moore’s Law are presented.