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Proceedings Paper

Probabilistic model for comparing the effectiveness of counterfeit deterrent features
Author(s): Anshu Saksena; Daniel Craig Dubbel; Jane W. Maclachlan Spicer
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Paper Abstract

As new counterfeit deterrent features are considered for new document designs, the need exists for evaluating candidate features' performance in a systematic and objective manner. To this end, an application program has been developed that is based on a probabilistic model of the counterfeiting process as determined by interview of experts in the field. The probabilistic approach attempts to capture the variability in understanding and replicating a security feature by representing the steps of the counterfeiting process with a Markov chain, and by maintaining the total cost incurred by the counterfeiter probabilistically. The application provides an estimate of the probability of understanding the security feature given the amount of resources the counterfeiter has at his disposal. The relative effectiveness of security features can be ranked based on this information, and on a scale that also provides information about the resources required of a potential counterfeiter of a note with that feature. An investigation found that the problem of determining the transition probabilities of the Markov chain is well defined. Further, sensitivity analysis shows that the model results are not highly sensitive to variation in model inputs by different users.

Paper Details

Date Published: 19 April 2002
PDF: 9 pages
Proc. SPIE 4677, Optical Security and Counterfeit Deterrence Techniques IV, (19 April 2002); doi: 10.1117/12.462721
Show Author Affiliations
Anshu Saksena, Johns Hopkins Univ. (United States)
Daniel Craig Dubbel, Johns Hopkins Univ. (United States)
Jane W. Maclachlan Spicer, Johns Hopkins Univ. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 4677:
Optical Security and Counterfeit Deterrence Techniques IV
Rudolf L. van Renesse, Editor(s)

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