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Proceedings Paper

Modeling effects-based operations in support of war games
Author(s): Lee William Wagenhals; Alexander H. Levis
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Paper Abstract

The problem of planning, executing and assessing Effects-Based Operations (EBO) requires the synthesis of a number of modeling approaches. A prototype system to assist in developing Courses of Action (COAs) for Effects-Based operations and evaluating them in terms of the probability of achieving the desired effects has been developed and is called CAESAR II/EB. Two of the key components of the system are: (a) an Influence net modeler such as the Campaign Assessment Tool (CAT) developed at AFRL/IF, and (b) an executable model generator and simulator based on the software implementation of Colored Petri nets called Design/CPN. The executable model, names COA/EB, is used to simulate the COAs and collect data on Measures of Performance (MOPs). One particular output is the probability of achieving the desired affect as a function of time. Probability profiles can be compared to determine the more effective COAs. This version of CAESAR II/EB was used successfully in August 2000 at the Naval War College in the war game Global 2000. Experiences with building and using the models both prior to the war game and during the war game to answer tropical questions as they arose are described.

Paper Details

Date Published: 19 September 2001
PDF: 12 pages
Proc. SPIE 4367, Enabling Technology for Simulation Science V, (19 September 2001); doi: 10.1117/12.440041
Show Author Affiliations
Lee William Wagenhals, George Mason Univ. (United States)
Alexander H. Levis, George Mason Univ. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 4367:
Enabling Technology for Simulation Science V
Alex F. Sisti; Dawn A. Trevisani, Editor(s)

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