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Proceedings Paper

Leading time domain seismic precursors
Author(s): A. C. Boucouvalas; M. Gkasios; A. Keskebes; N. T. Tselikas
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Paper Abstract

The problem of predicting the occurrence of earthquakes is threefold. On one hand it is necessary to predict the date and magnitude of an earthquake, and on the other hand the location of the epicenter. In this work after a brief review of the state of earthquake prediction research, we report on a new leading time precursor for determining time onset of earthquake occurrence. We report the linking between earthquakes of the past with those which happen in the future via Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL) numbers. We demonstrate it here with two example seed earthquakes at least 100 years old. Using this leading indicator method we can predict significant earthquake events >6.5R, with good accuracy approximately +- 1 day somewhere in the world. From a single seed we produce at least 100 trials simultaneously of which 50% are correct to +- 1day. The indicator is based on Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers (FDL). This result hints that the log periodic FDL numbers are at the root of the understanding of the earthquake mechanism. The theory is based on the assumption that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series. (The mechanism could well be linked to planetary orbits). When future dates are derived from clustering and convergence from previous strong earthquake dates at an FDL time distance, then we have a high probability for an earthquake to occur on that date. We set up a real time system which generates FDL time series from each previous significant earthquake (>7R) and we produce a year to year calendar of high probability earthquake dates. We have tested this over a number of years with considerable success. We have applied this technique for strong (>7R) earthquakes across the globe as well as on a restricted region such as the Greek geographic region where the magnitude is small (>4R-6.5R). In both cases the success of the method is impressive. It is our belief that supplementing this method with other precursors will enhance significantly the prediction of significant earthquakes.

Paper Details

Date Published: 12 August 2014
PDF: 9 pages
Proc. SPIE 9229, Second International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2014), 92291H (12 August 2014); doi: 10.1117/12.2066317
Show Author Affiliations
A. C. Boucouvalas, Univ. of Peloponnese (Greece)
M. Gkasios, Univ. of Peloponnese (Greece)
A. Keskebes, Univ. of Peloponnese (Greece)
N. T. Tselikas, Univ. of Peloponnese (Greece)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 9229:
Second International Conference on Remote Sensing and Geoinformation of the Environment (RSCy2014)
Diofantos G. Hadjimitsis; Kyriacos Themistocleous; Silas Michaelides; Giorgos Papadavid, Editor(s)

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