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Proceedings Paper

Use of binary logistic regression technique with MODIS data to estimate wild fire risk
Author(s): Hong Fan; Liping Di; Wenli Yang; Brian Bonnlander; Xiaoyan Li
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Paper Abstract

Many forest fires occur across the globe each year, which destroy life and property, and strongly impact ecosystems. In recent years, wildland fires and altered fire disturbance regimes have become a significant management and science problem affecting ecosystems and wildland/urban interface cross the United States and global. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of 504 probability models for forecasting fire risk for 14 fuel types, 12 months, one day/week/month in advance, which use 19 years of historical fire data in addition to meteorological and vegetation variables. MODIS land products are utilized as a major data source, and a logistical binary regression was adopted to solve fire forecast probability. In order to better modeling the change of fire risk along with the transition of seasons, some spatial and temporal stratification strategies were applied. In order to explore the possibilities of real time prediction, the Matlab distributing computing toolbox was used to accelerate the prediction. Finally, this study give an evaluation and validation of predict based on the ground truth collected. Validating results indicate these fire risk models have achieved nearly 70% accuracy of prediction and as well MODIS data are potential data source to implement near real-time fire risk prediction.

Paper Details

Date Published: 15 November 2007
PDF: 9 pages
Proc. SPIE 6786, MIPPR 2007: Automatic Target Recognition and Image Analysis; and Multispectral Image Acquisition, 67863L (15 November 2007); doi: 10.1117/12.774737
Show Author Affiliations
Hong Fan, George Mason Univ. (United States)
Wuhan Univ. (China)
Liping Di, George Mason Univ. (United States)
Wenli Yang, George Mason Univ. (United States)
Brian Bonnlander, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition (United States)
Xiaoyan Li, George Mason Univ. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 6786:
MIPPR 2007: Automatic Target Recognition and Image Analysis; and Multispectral Image Acquisition

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