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Proceedings Paper

Role of natural and anthropogenic factors in global and regional climate transformations
Author(s): Vladimir A. Kovalenko; Gelii A. Zherebtsov
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Paper Abstract

Presented is the evidence for the actual manifestation of solar variability in climatic characteristics of the Prebaikalye. This influence on surface air temperature was quantified. A high degree of correlation was established between the mean power of a solar activity cycle and the surface air temperature in the Prebaikalye, averaged over a solar cycle period. It is shown that the main meaningful air temperature variations in the region for the period 1881-1960 were caused by solar activity. The temperature variation amplitude for that period was 1°C. Since the 1960s until the present, with the influence of solar variability persisting, there has been an obvious forcing of another factor whose role was steadily increasing so that as recently as in the last decade it exceeded the contribution from solar variability. For the period 1960-1997, the temperature rise that was not associated with solar variability, was 1.7°C. This new factor is most likely to be the global variations of the thermal regime of the atmosphere that are caused by the anthropogenic factor. This assumption is in agreement with model calculations, pointing to the fact that the most significant manifestation of a global warming should be expected in inland regions of Eurasia. An analysis of the seasonal variations in ground temperature showed that the variations that are taking place to date are most clearly pronounced in the winter-spring period and are associated with a reduction of the stationary period of the Siberian anticyclone. This suggests that the mechanism responsible for the realization of variability factors of regional climate is the global atmospheric circulation rather than a local change of the energy balance of the atmosphere.

Paper Details

Date Published: 28 March 2003
PDF: 6 pages
Proc. SPIE 5027, Ninth Joint International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics/Atmospheric Physics. Part II: Laser Sensing and Atmospheric Physics, (28 March 2003); doi: 10.1117/12.497318
Show Author Affiliations
Vladimir A. Kovalenko, Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia)
Gelii A. Zherebtsov, Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics (Russia)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 5027:
Ninth Joint International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics/Atmospheric Physics. Part II: Laser Sensing and Atmospheric Physics
Gennadii G. Matvienko; Vladimir P. Lukin, Editor(s)

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