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Proceedings Paper

Uncertainty analysis on the water resource system in water supply zone of Tarim River watershed based on the multiplication frequency curve type III(X-III2)
Author(s): Xiangyun Li; Lixing Yang; Lixin Wang
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Paper Abstract

The Tarim River Watershed consists of the headstream and trunk-stream zone, and the water consumed by the human and ecosystem in the trunk-stream zone is basically controlled by the hydrological process in the headstream. This process is random. Because the serial of hydrological observation data is short, it is necessary to analyze the uncertainty of hydrological system in order to obtain integrated hydrological information. The probability statistics is a method which frequently used to deal with this problem. But P-III Frequency Curve in common use is not perfect. And the multiplication frequency curve type III, based on the multiplication theorem of probability and the attribute of median, have such qualities as fitting the calculation of non-instantaneous value( for annual runoff quantum), no J-shaped & Z-shaped distribution and resistibility and robust. Using the X-III2 multiplication frequency curve, the 5 long data serials (n=14800) are simulated with the observed data through 35 years of 5 hydrological stations in headstream zone. The statistic analyses of these analog serials are made. The analytical results show that the hydrologic and water resource system in headstream zone is stable. This conclusion will help the exploitation and utilization of water resource in the basin.

Paper Details

Date Published: 14 July 2003
PDF: 6 pages
Proc. SPIE 4890, Ecosystems Dynamics, Ecosystem-Society Interactions, and Remote Sensing Applications for Semi-Arid and Arid Land, (14 July 2003); doi: 10.1117/12.466757
Show Author Affiliations
Xiangyun Li, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS (China)
Xinjiang Institute of Scientific and Technological Policies Research (China)
Lixing Yang, Xinjiang Agricultural Univ. (China)
Lixin Wang, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS (China)


Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 4890:
Ecosystems Dynamics, Ecosystem-Society Interactions, and Remote Sensing Applications for Semi-Arid and Arid Land
Xiaoling Pan; Wei Gao; Michael H. Glantz; Yoshiaki Honda, Editor(s)

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