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Proceedings Paper

Forecasting aggressive state behavior and assessing courses of action to successfully deter hostile adversaries
Author(s): Brian Levey; Steve Shellman
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Paper Abstract

This project employs data extracted from unstructured text and quantitative behavioral models to understand, forecast, and mitigate US adversaries' aggressive actions against the US and our allies. We use a combination of quasi-experimental causal modeling and counterfactual assessment techniques to assess the effectiveness of US courses of action (COAs) to quell aggressive states’ hostile activities. Results illustrate actions may yield unintended consequences through their impacts on other contextual factors. Additional analyses employ forecasting and ensemble techniques to examine the likely anticipated consequences of various US COAs in future scenarios and cases. Ultimately, the data, methods, and results provide a useful decision-support tool for planners and analysts faced with how best to mitigate against unfavorable outcomes.

Paper Details

Date Published: 27 April 2018
PDF: 7 pages
Proc. SPIE 10653, Next-Generation Analyst VI, 106530I (27 April 2018); doi: 10.1117/12.2307601
Show Author Affiliations
Brian Levey, Strategic Analysis Enterprises, Inc. (United States)
Steve Shellman, Strategic Analysis Enterprises, Inc. (United States)

Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 10653:
Next-Generation Analyst VI
Timothy P. Hanratty; James Llinas, Editor(s)

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