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Proceedings Paper

Predicting urban expansion in Moscow based on night lights
Author(s): Demetris Stathakis; Karen Seto; Igor Savin
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Paper Abstract

Night-lights obtained by the DMSP/OLS sensor offer a unique opportunity to measure urban expansion in the past two decades. We apply a method to project the existing night-lights time series in the future in order to forecast urban expansion. The rapidly expanding Moscow city in the Russian Federation is selected as the case study. Night-lights are projected up to the year 2025 by exponential smoothing. It is demonstrated by the results that the method can be used to obtain both spatially explicit, i.e. actual maps, as well as synoptic forecasts, e.g. by means of forecast variables such as the Sum of Lights (SoL). These forecasts are accompanied by estimation of confidence intervals, providing upper and lower bounds for future values. The method presented can be applied globally.

Paper Details

Date Published: 4 October 2017
PDF: 7 pages
Proc. SPIE 10431, Remote Sensing Technologies and Applications in Urban Environments II, 104310F (4 October 2017); doi: 10.1117/12.2277322
Show Author Affiliations
Demetris Stathakis, Univ. of Thessaly (Greece)
Karen Seto, Yale Univ. (United States)
Igor Savin, Univ. of Thessaly (Greece)


Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 10431:
Remote Sensing Technologies and Applications in Urban Environments II
Thilo Erbertseder; Nektarios Chrysoulakis; Ying Zhang; Wieke Heldens, Editor(s)

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