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Proceedings Paper

Impacts of climate change on peanut yield in China simulated by CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections
Author(s): Hanqing Xu; Zhan Tian; Honglin Zhong; Dongli Fan; Runhe Shi; Yilong Niu; Xiaogang He; Maosi Chen
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Paper Abstract

Peanut is one of the major edible vegetable oil crops in China, whose growth and yield are very sensitive to climate change. In addition, agriculture climate resources are expected to be redistributed under climate change, which will further influence the growth, development, cropping patterns, distribution and production of peanut. In this study, we used the DSSAT-Peanut model to examine the climate change impacts on peanut production, oil industry and oil food security in China. This model is first calibrated using site observations including 31 years’ (1981-2011) climate, soil and agronomy data. This calibrated model is then employed to simulate the future peanut yield based on 20 climate scenarios from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) developed by the InterSectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) driven by 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results indicate that the irrigated peanut yield will decrease 2.6% under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 9.9% under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 29% under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively. Similarly, the rain-fed peanut yield will also decrease, with a 2.5% reduction under the RCP 2.6 scenario, 11.5% reduction under the RCP 4.5 scenario and 30% reduction under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively.

Paper Details

Date Published: 1 September 2017
PDF: 7 pages
Proc. SPIE 10405, Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability XIV, 104050W (1 September 2017); doi: 10.1117/12.2272988
Show Author Affiliations
Hanqing Xu, Shanghai Institute of Technology (China)
Shanghai Climate Ctr. (China)
Zhan Tian, Shanghai Institute of Technology (China)
Shanghai Climate Ctr. (China)
Honglin Zhong, Univ. of Maryland, College Park (United States)
Dongli Fan, Shanghai Institute of Technology (China)
Runhe Shi, Univ. of Maryland, College Park (United States)
Yilong Niu, Shanghai Cliamate Ctr. (China)
East China Normal Univ. (China)
Xiaogang He, Princeton Univ. (United States)
Maosi Chen, Colorado State Univ. (United States)


Published in SPIE Proceedings Vol. 10405:
Remote Sensing and Modeling of Ecosystems for Sustainability XIV
Wei Gao; Ni-Bin Chang; Jinnian Wang, Editor(s)

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